Risk Assessment

Overview

Risk isn’t eliminated; it’s traded. Your job is to surface the biggest threats quickly, choose controls that reduce harm, and set clear thresholds that trigger plan changes. Tie these decisions to the survival priorities so you’re solving the right problem first.

Rapid Hazard Triage

Start wide, then narrow. Address life‑threats, then plan.

• People: bleeding, airway/breathing, consciousness, exposure risk.
• Place: weather (now/next), terrain traps (cliffs, avalanche, flood), route options.
• Things: gear status (light, warm layers, water, comms), vehicle condition if applicable.

⛑️ First Aid: Run MARCH‑E first for any injured person, then continue assessment.

Risk Matrix

Simple, fast way to grade hazards by expected harm.

• Likelihood: Unlikely / Possible / Likely
• Impact (Severity): Minor / Serious / Catastrophic
• Combine to flag: Green (proceed), Amber (proceed with controls), Red (stop or change plan).

💡 Tip: You don’t need numbers. A quick “Amber/Red” label triggers controls or postponement.

Go/No-Go Thresholds

Write down the lines you will not cross—before you’re at the line.

• Time to dark: “If off trail 90 minutes before sunset, stop to shelter.”
• Weather: “If thunder < 30/30 rule or winds > 25 kt on ridge, descend.”
• People: “If anyone is hypothermic or injured beyond basic care, halt movement and signal.”
• Gear: “If we lose primary light or comms, switch to contingency route back.”

⚠️ Caution: If any Red threshold is met, stop arguing. Pivot to the pre‑agreed plan.

📝 Note — 30/30 Rule: If the time between a lightning flash and the thunder is under 30 seconds, you’re close enough to be struck. Move to a safe building or fully enclosed metal vehicle and wait 30 minutes after the last thunder before resuming activities. See NOAA Lightning Safety: https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-outdoors

Solo vs Group Decisions

Decide how you’ll decide—before decisions get hard.

• Designate a leader (can rotate by domain) and a red‑team voice to challenge assumptions.
• Closed‑loop comms: Each tasking is repeated back and acknowledged.
• Short briefs: “Purpose, key tasks, end state” before movement.
• Check‑backs: Every 15–30 minutes or at terrain features, confirm status vs plan.

Leader’s Intent

Boil the plan to its essence so teammates can improvise if separated.

• Purpose: Why are we doing this?
• Key Tasks: The few critical actions that must happen.
• End State: What success looks like (location, time, condition).

Example — Day hike with incoming storm:

• Purpose: Return everyone to trailhead safely before storm.
• Key Tasks: Stay on handrail ridge; regroup at saddles; shelter if thunder heard.
• End State: At vehicle by 15:30, all dry and uninjured.

Contingency Triggers

Write explicit “if/then” branches tied to observations.

• If visibility < 150 m → Switch to handrail navigation and buddy tether.
• If creek > mid‑shin or opaque → No crossing; choose higher route.
• If pace < 2 km/h by 14:00 → Shift to nearest shelter site; signal schedule on the hour.
• If battery < 20% → Airplane mode + text check‑ins only on the hour.

☑️ Checklist — Quick GAR (Green/Amber/Red)

• People: Warm? Hydrated? Or injured/cold?
• Environment: Weather window stable? Terrain hazards?
• Equipment: Light? Layers? Comms? Navigation?
• Plan: Go/No‑Go thresholds defined? Decision points marked?

Example — River crossing decision (shoulder‑season):

• Observe: Water 8–10°C, knee‑deep but fast, opaque, no safe exit downstream.
• Orient: Cold shock risk + entrapment hazard; one person is cold already.
• Decide: No‑Go. Walk upstream to bridge; if none by 60 minutes, shelter and signal.
• Act: Reverse to warm, wind‑sheltered spot; hot drink; dry layer; reassess route.

Scenario

🧭 Scenario (Desert wash): A usually dry arroyo runs brown after storms. Daylight is fading.
🔍 Decisions: Cross now vs detour; risk matrix labels? Backstop time?
✅ Outcome: You label it Red (high impact), set a 60‑minute detour cap, choose higher ground, and reach camp late but dry.
🧠 Lessons:
- GAR language makes stop/Go obvious
- Decision points + backstops prevent creeping risk
🏋️ Drill: Write 3 Go/No‑Go thresholds you’ll actually follow.

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Key Takeaways

• Decide in advance what conditions trigger a stop, detour, or shelter decision.
• Use simple Green/Amber/Red language to make risk visible and actionable.
• Share Leader’s Intent so teammates can improvise toward the same end state.
• Write clear if/then triggers tied to observable conditions; rehearse them.