Survival Priorities

Rule of 3s

Memory aid, not a law. Priorities change with conditions.

• Airway/Breathing: ~3 minutes without adequate oxygen. Address life‑threats first (see: MARCH‑E).
• Shelter/Thermal: ~3 hours exposed to cold/wet/wind or extreme heat without protection.
• Water: ~3 days without water (much less in heat/exertion).
• Food: ~3 weeks without food (not a near‑term priority unless stranded long).

💡 Tip: Wet + Wind + Cold is the fastest killer for most hikers. “Wet 4°C/40°F with wind” can be more dangerous than “−7°C/20°F dry and calm.”

⚠️ Caution: Don’t chase water or food first and neglect bleeding control or hypothermia prevention.

⛑️ First Aid: If there’s major bleeding, control it immediately; open/maintain the airway; check breathing. Then prevent heat loss before searching for water.

Example — Lost day‑hike, drizzle, 8°C/46°F:

• STOP, put on insulation and rain shell, get under a tree well or tarp; keep moving just enough to stay warm.
• Signal (whistle/flash), then plan water only after shelter and signaling are handled.

STOP

A fast reset to avoid panic and bad decisions.

1) Stop: Freeze your feet. Sit or kneel. Set a 2‑minute timer. Do six 4‑4‑8 breaths (inhale 4, hold 4, exhale 8). 2) Think: State your goal out loud: “I want to be found safe and uninjured.” Note constraints (injury, weather, sunset, battery). 3) Observe: Check self, companions, and environment. Map, compass, recent landmarks, weather trend, cell/GPS status, time to dark. 4) Plan: Pick the next right action that reduces risk and increases options (shelter, signaling, comms, water). Set a turn‑back time or check‑in.

📝 Note: Pair STOP with the Rule of 3s. If cold/wet/windy, shelter and thermal management outrank movement.

Example — Off‑trail on a ridge, fog rolling in:

• Stop: Layer up, eat a quick snack for heat, timer 2 minutes.
• Think: Goal = regain a known handrail (trail/stream). Constraint = 90 minutes to sunset.
• Observe: Wind from W, ridge runs N‑S; last cairn 15 minutes south; phone at 42%, offline map loaded.
• Plan: Move south along the ridge (handrail) for 20 minutes to find cairn; if not found by 20, build wind break, signal, reassess.

OODA

Iterative loop to keep decisions adaptive under uncertainty.

• Observe: What is actually happening? Sensors: eyes/ears/skin, tools: map, compass, GPS, weather.
• Orient: Fit observations to terrain, experience, and current constraints (injury, team, time, gear).
• Decide: Choose the best action you can justify now. Good enough beats perfect later.
• Act: Do it, then immediately re‑observe and repeat the loop.

💡 Tip: Pre‑plan “if/then” triggers (e.g., “If visibility < 100 m, switch to handrail navigation”). It speeds the loop and prevents paralysis.

⚠️ Caution: Beware fixation. If a plan isn’t working on the ground (no trail where the map shows one), re‑orient and choose a new action.

Example — Urban blackout at night:

• Observe: Power out 3 blocks; cell data poor; elevators down; traffic lights dead.
• Orient: Heat index high; elderly neighbor on oxygen; your car is low on fuel.
• Decide: Check neighbor; stabilize them; conserve phone; text family status with check‑in time; avoid driving.
• Act: Execute, then reassess in 60 minutes or if conditions change.

PACE Communications Plan

Have multiple, pre‑agreed ways to reach each other. Define timing and message format.

• Primary: Most reliable, easiest (e.g., phone call).
• Alternate: Next best if primary fails (e.g., SMS/text or messaging app).
• Contingency: Requires more effort/coordination (e.g., FRS/GMRS Ch 3, PL tone 0, check‑ins on the hour).
• Emergency: Last resort to signal status/need (e.g., meet at “North Library lot” at 19:00; leave note; PLB/SOS if life‑threatening).

📝 Note: Standardize a short message format: WHO / WHERE / WHEN / WHAT / INTENT.

Examples

• Family local:
  • P: Call; A: SMS; C: GMRS Ch 3, on‑the‑hour 5‑min watch; E: Meet HOME‑2 (Aunt’s) 20:00.
  • Sample: “ANDREW / HOME / 18:30 / POWER OUT, NEIGHBOR OK / STAY, NEXT 21:00.”
• Hiking party:
  • P: In‑person within line of sight; A: Whistle 1=where are you?, 2=come to me, 3=distress; C: FRS Ch 1, 10‑min windows at 10:00/12:00/14:00; E: Trailhead board 16:00, leave plan with ranger.
• Remote travel:
  • P: Sat‑messenger preset “OK” every evening; A: SMS when cell available; C: APRS beacon hourly; E: PLB SOS only for life threats.

☑️ Checklist — Minimum PACE card

• Names and roles
• Channels and tones
• Check‑in times and durations
• Message format (WHO/WHERE/WHEN/WHAT/INTENT)
• Rendezvous points (primary/alternate)

Scenarios

🧭 Scenario (Temperate forest, fog): The trail vanishes in cloud. Wind chills sweat. Phone at 36%.
🔍 Decisions: Push forward vs STOP and reset; water now vs shelter; signal cadence.
✅ Outcome: STOP → layer up → small wind break → whistle schedule; you become findable and warm before worrying about water.
🧠 Lessons:
- Rule of 3s: thermal outranks water/food
- STOP resets panic into action
🏋️ Drill: Practice a 2‑minute STOP under a cold fan.

🧭 Scenario (Urban blackout): Power down, cell data jammed, elderly neighbor on oxygen.
🔍 Decisions: Check neighbor vs drive; signal family; power priorities.
✅ Outcome: You check neighbor, send WHO/WHERE/WHEN/WHAT/INTENT by SMS, set hourly check‑ins, and avoid risky driving.
🧠 Lessons:
- PACE plan + short message format
- Battery discipline preserves options
🏋️ Drill: Write your family’s 1‑line message template.